Brookfield Asset Management / BAM / CA***0041058

[peter]

Brookfield Asset Management / BAM / CA***0041058

NYSE alebo TSX

https://bam.brookfield.com/
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BAM
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAM

BAM vznikol spinoff-om asset manazementu z Brookfield korporacie (=povodny BAM, teraz BN) - 4Q22.
BAM teraz vlastni 25% asset manazera a BN si ponechal 75%.
Press release:
https://bn.brookfield.com/press-release ... -its-asset

Novy BAM je tzv. asset-light manazer, tzn. nema/nevlastni takmer ziadne aktiva a neinvestuje vlastny kapital - je to cisty spravca aktiv, ktore vlastni niekto iny (v tomto pripade BN a vsetky jeho dcery) = vsetky vynosy/cash flow su tvorene cisto poplatkami za spravu.

Pred spinoff-om bolo oznamene, ze divi politka bude vyplacanie ~90% zisku.
Tiez bolo oznamene, ze sa ocakava rast AUM resp. FGAUM (fee-generating AUM) medzi 15-20% (co v predklade znamena, ze sa ocakava rast divi rovnakym tempom).
Prezentacia:
https://bn.brookfield.com/sites/brookfi ... A92022.pdf
(slajdy 160-179)
Tie iste info boli potvrdene aj v prvom annual reporte (2022):
https://bam.brookfield.com/sites/brookf ... ort-v2.pdf

Korp. struktura Brookfieldu (BN + BIP/C, BEP/C, BBY, Brookfield Property Group, BAMR) je brutalne zlozita a narocna na akukolvek analyzu a valuaciu.
Oproti tomu BAM struktura (assets=0, debt=0) je naopak az komicky jednoducha a rast zisku a dividend je priamo naviazany na rast FGAUM, za ktore ich klienti platia poplatky. Ocakavany rast FGAUM je 15-20%.

2023 EPS odhad: $1.32 / $1.35 (FG/yahoo)
(divi 4x$0.32= $1.28, 97% EPS payout ratio)

2024 EPS konsenzus: $1.59 / $1.6 (FG/yahoo)
(divi odhad 4*$0.36= $1.44, 90% EPS payout ratio, +12.5% YtY)

O nejakej historicky dlhodobej fair value sa bohuzial neda hovorit.
Akcia sa zatial mota okolo 25 P/E co +/- zodpoveda kvalitativnym a kvantitativnym atributom popisanym vyssie.

BUY < $33
STRONG BUY < $30

[peter]

2023 EPS odhad: $1.32 / $1.35 (FG/yahoo)
(divi 4x$0.32= $1.28, 97% EPS payout ratio)

2024 EPS konsenzus: $1.59 / $1.6 (FG/yahoo)
(divi odhad 4*$0.36= $1.44, 90% EPS payout ratio, +12.5% YtY)

O nejakej historicky dlhodobej fair value sa bohuzial neda hovorit.
Akcia sa zatial mota okolo 25 P/E co +/- zodpoveda kvalitativnym a kvantitativnym atributom popisanym vyssie.

BUY < $33
STRONG BUY < $30

2023 EPS = $1.37 (distributable earnings)
https://bam.brookfield.com/press-releas ... 9-dividend

2024 EPS odhad = $1.56 (FG) / $1.54 (seekingalpha/yahoo)
2024 divi 4*0.38=$1.52

FV= 25 P/E * 1.54 EPS = $38.5

Navýšenie divi:
2024: 18.8%

BUY <$38
STRONG BUY <$35