NYSE
https://ir.blueowl.com/overview/
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OWL
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OWL
Pokracujeme v serii predstaveni alternativnych asset manazerov (alt-AM).
Po BAM a APO sa pozreme na modru sovu, aka. OWL.
OWL vznikol spojenim privatnych firiem Dyal Capital Partners a Owl Rock Capital v roku 2021 (a teda je to suverenne najmladsi alt-AM) a miesto standardneho IPO sa na trhy vydali cestou spojenia so SPAC sponzorovaneho dalsim investicnym partnerom a ocenenim $12.5B.
Koho by zaujimala historia blizsie, tento Forbes clanok to cele sumarizuje:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevindowd/ ... te-equity/
OWL je sice najmladsim alt-AM, ale jeho bizinis je bezkonkurencne najlepsie nadizajnovany:
- asset light model (nevlastne ziadne aktiva, len ich manazuje),
- zdroje fondov/AUM (vacsina je permanentny kapital, tzn. neriesi odchod investorov a kazde navysenie investovanych prostriedkov automaticky len zvysuje poplatky, ktore OWL uctuje),
- zdroj prijmov (skoro vylucne pozostavaju z manazerskych poplatkov, tzv. FRE/fee-related earnings, nema ziadne SRE alebo carry, ktorych valuacia a predvidatelnost je omnoho nizsia vs. FRE),
- marza (FRE margin ~60% = alt-AM sen).
OWL operuje v 3 roznych sferach:
- direct lending (pozicky) - 50%
- GP Capital Solutions (investicie do minoritnych podielov inych private equity firiem) - 35%
- real estate - 15%
Starsi ale vyborny clanok, ktory blizsie popisuje OWL biznis:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/457521 ... eck-it-out
EPS
2021: $0.35
2022: $0.53 (+51%)
2023: $0.65 (+23%)
2024E: $0.82 (+26%) (FG aj yahoo)
2025E: $1.00 (+22%) (FG aj yahoo)
Divi
2021: $0.13
2022: $0.43
2023: $0.55
2024E: $0.72 (FG)
2025E: $0.93 (FG)
Owl zo zaciatku zvysoval divi kvartalne. Od 2023/05 presli na rocne tempo navysovania, ked ohlasili $0.14 dividendu. Tzn. dalsie navysenie ocakavam v 2024/05. Pre kontext ake to navysenie moze byt terba dodat, ze manazment si sam dal ciel $1 divi v 2025 - takze aby matematika sedela, musia nas dalsie dve navysenia posunut z $0.14 na $0.25.
Osobne tipujem, ze tento rok to dvihnu na $0.2 (0.14+3x0.2=0.74, +/- v sulade s odhadom na 2024, zdroj: FG) a v 2025 potom na $0.25 (0.2+3x0.25=0.95, +/- v sulade s odhadom na 2025, zdroj: FG).
Druha cast divi matematiky - yield on cost, ak dnes nakupime za $18.5:
$0.74/$18.5 = 4%
$0.95/$18.5 = 5%
(nepocitam divi withholding tax)
BUY < $20
GOOD BUY < $17.5
STRONG BUY < $15
